Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132023 230921 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.40 124.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.2 33.0 36.1 37.8 37.3 45.4 47.8 47.3 N U U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 89.8 81.0 71.5 71.5 63.0 46.7 40.9 36.6 N N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 25.0 -14.0 -2.0 14.0 40.0 2.0 9.0 2.0 U U U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 56.0 53.0 50.0 44.0 34.0 28.0 23.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 10.0 13.0 14.0 16.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 U U U U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.48 EP132023 230921 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.40 124.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.