Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132023 230921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.2  37.5  39.8  43.7  48.7  55.2  48.3  52.5  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.0  71.5  63.0  54.3  47.7  40.9  36.6  32.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0  13.0  37.0  32.0  28.0   5.0  -1.0  -6.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  51.0  47.0  44.0  37.0  28.0  24.0  18.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  13.0  17.0  22.0  21.0  14.0   7.0  10.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.76

 EP132023 230921 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.