Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132023 230921 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 125.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 23.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.2 37.6 36.4 37.0 45.2 49.9 52.2 52.2 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 86.0 76.5 68.0 68.0 52.7 45.9 37.6 37.6 N U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 17.0 33.0 33.0 19.0 -2.0 11.0 11.0 U U N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 52.0 47.0 45.0 34.0 26.0 21.0 21.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 19.0 21.0 21.0 8.0 10.0 1.0 1.0 U VU VU VU U U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.00 EP132023 230921 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 125.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.