Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132023 230921 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 125.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.80 F TC SIZE [%] 68.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.2 35.4 37.6 42.2 52.7 50.3 53.7 53.7 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 81.5 74.4 65.5 57.7 51.8 46.6 42.6 42.6 N U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 20.0 20.0 50.0 -10.0 15.0 -27.0 -27.0 U U U N U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 48.0 45.0 40.0 31.0 25.0 20.0 20.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 20.0 18.0 13.0 16.0 7.0 8.0 8.0 VU VU VU U U N U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.30 EP132023 230921 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.50 125.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.