Rapid Intensification Guidance EP132023 230922 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.00 125.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.00 F TC SIZE [%] 56.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.4 36.6 39.9 45.5 51.4 50.9 50.9 50.9 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 81.5 74.4 65.5 57.7 51.8 46.6 46.6 46.6 N U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 25.0 24.0 30.0 32.0 14.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 U U N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 44.0 38.0 36.0 29.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 15.0 16.0 9.0 11.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 U U U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.18 EP132023 230922 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.00 125.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.