Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP132023 230922 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    126.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.0  43.0  47.5  55.0  47.8  54.8  54.8  54.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.4  70.5  62.7  56.8  51.6  47.6  47.6  47.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  44.0  16.0  -1.0  -1.0 -46.0 -46.0 -46.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  36.0  34.0  30.0  26.0  22.0  22.0  22.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  18.0  14.0  13.0  10.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.68

 EP132023 230922 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    126.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.