Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142023 230924 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  23.4  22.7  20.5  18.4  30.3  32.7  41.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  19.0  24.0   9.0   4.0  24.0  10.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 120.7 120.7 118.6 116.5 116.5 114.4 114.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  35.0  58.0  34.0  21.0 -10.0  40.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  58.0  57.0  60.0  55.0  51.0  46.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.5%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%       11.5%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        4.6%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        4.0%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        4.0%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%       19.0%       10.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.4%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        1.1%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        4.3%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        4.3%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.90

 EP142023 230924 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    121.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.4  23.4  22.7  20.5  18.4  30.3  32.7  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  58.0  57.0  60.0  55.0  51.0  46.0  N  N  F  F  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%