Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142023 230924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    123.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  21.7  19.1  17.9  26.3  31.0  35.4  45.3  N  N  N  F  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  18.0   8.0   5.0   7.0  11.0  24.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 120.7 118.6 118.6 116.5 116.5 120.7 122.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0   8.0  -7.0   0.0 -46.0  37.0  11.0  19.0  U  U  U  U VU  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  57.0  54.0  49.0  54.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.8%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        5.1%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.78

 EP142023 230924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    123.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  21.7  19.1  17.9  26.3  31.0  35.4  45.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  59.0  61.0  57.0  54.0  49.0  54.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%