Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142023 230925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     41.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  19.7  24.0  27.6  27.0  31.5  41.6  47.3  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   5.0   5.0   8.0  11.0  25.0  12.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        123.6 121.5 121.5 121.5 121.5 127.9 132.3 134.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0   2.0  32.0 -24.0  36.0  45.0  -3.0  -7.0  U  U  N VU  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  55.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -9.0  -9.0  -4.0   0.0  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.58

 EP142023 230925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.00    125.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     41.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  19.7  24.0  27.6  27.0  31.5  41.6  47.3  N  N  N  N  N  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  54.0  51.0  55.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -9.0  -9.0  -4.0   0.0  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%