Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152023 231003 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  33.0  30.3  22.6  25.6  22.0  23.8  27.3  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  23.0  24.0  25.0  27.0  30.0  41.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   120.0 129.0  80.0  79.0  85.0  68.0  90.0  41.0  F  F  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  79.0  80.0  80.0  81.0  77.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        2.4%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h       13.3%       24.5%       18.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.3%        9.9%        7.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.3%        9.9%        7.1%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%        9.9%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h        9.1%       29.4%       19.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.7%        5.4%
 55kt / 48h        9.5%       14.8%       12.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        9.7%        6.1%
 65kt / 72h       11.0%       22.6%       16.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 EP152023 231003 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.60    106.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  33.0  30.3  22.6  25.6  22.0  23.8  27.3  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  79.0  80.0  80.0  81.0  77.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%