Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152023 231003 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  30.4  25.9  23.4  24.6  21.8  31.7  22.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  21.0  22.0  24.0  26.0  29.0  31.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 129.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   142.0 141.0 138.0  90.0  57.0  36.0  53.0  71.0 VF VF VF  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  79.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.5%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        9.5%       19.2%       14.4%
 30kt / 24h        3.1%        6.8%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        6.8%        4.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%        6.8%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       20.4%       13.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.9%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        7.7%       11.6%        9.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        6.1%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        8.4%       14.4%       11.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 EP152023 231003 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.00    107.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  30.4  25.9  23.4  24.6  21.8  31.7  22.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  77.0  79.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%