Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152023 231004 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    107.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  29.9  27.0  27.8  21.3  25.2  22.2  25.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  25.0  26.0  27.0  30.0  33.0  37.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 127.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   111.0 137.0  61.0  65.0  32.0   6.0  40.0  46.0  F VF  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  77.0  75.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       10.9%        7.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.5%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.3%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        3.3%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%       11.2%        7.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.3%        6.5%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        2.6%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        7.0%        9.5%        8.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 EP152023 231004 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10    107.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  29.9  27.0  27.8  21.3  25.2  22.2  25.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  77.0  75.0  74.0  72.0  69.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%