Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152023 231004 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  26.6  28.5  24.3  21.3  24.3  21.5  24.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  27.0  27.0  29.0  33.0  34.0  37.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3 124.3 122.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    99.0  82.0  52.0  27.0  27.0  44.0  71.0  -2.0  F  N  N  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        3.1%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h       10.2%       24.0%       17.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.5%       10.5%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%       10.5%        6.8%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%       10.5%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h        8.1%       24.8%       16.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.6%        4.3%
 55kt / 48h        8.7%       12.9%       10.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        6.2%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        6.7%       15.1%       10.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 EP152023 231004 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  26.6  28.5  24.3  21.3  24.3  21.5  24.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  75.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%