Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152023 231004 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    108.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  29.2  22.1  20.0  26.6  22.6  26.4  23.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  26.0  28.0  29.0  35.0  36.0  39.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 117.0 114.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  74.0  61.0  25.0  55.0  82.0  29.0  65.0  F  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  74.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.9%        5.0%        6.0%
 25kt / 24h       20.3%       36.0%       28.2%
 30kt / 24h       11.5%       20.2%       15.9%
 35kt / 24h        8.9%       20.2%       14.6%
 40kt / 24h        8.9%       20.2%       14.6%
 45kt / 36h       13.9%       32.6%       23.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.3%        6.7%
 55kt / 48h       11.1%       17.1%       14.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        9.0%        5.7%
 65kt / 72h        7.6%       16.4%       12.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.58

 EP152023 231004 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    108.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.2  29.2  22.1  20.0  26.6  22.6  26.4  23.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  74.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%