Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152023 231005 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    109.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     65.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  20.5  20.9  24.7  21.8  24.7  23.6  34.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  40.0  40.0  39.0  37.0  38.0  43.0  43.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 119.3 114.6 114.6 112.3 112.3 114.6 107.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  56.0  41.0  36.0  58.0  74.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  66.0  63.0  61.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        3.7%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        9.9%       25.2%       17.6%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%       14.0%        9.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%       13.9%        8.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%       13.2%        7.2%
 45kt / 36h        6.6%       20.3%       13.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.7%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        9.7%       11.6%       10.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        4.8%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h       10.6%       10.1%       10.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 EP152023 231005 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    109.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  20.5  20.9  24.7  21.8  24.7  23.6  34.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  66.0  63.0  61.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%