Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152023 231005 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    109.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  23.3  24.8  23.8  22.2  24.0  28.9  38.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  35.0  37.0  38.0  38.0  42.0  42.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 119.3 114.6 114.6 112.3 114.6 114.6 114.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0  33.0  25.0  38.0  67.0  37.0  44.0  39.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  71.0  68.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        3.6%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        7.6%       22.0%       14.8%
 30kt / 24h        3.7%       11.9%        7.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%       11.7%        6.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       11.2%        6.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.7%       19.2%       12.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.1%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        8.0%       11.2%        9.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        4.5%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        7.8%        7.8%        7.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.36

 EP152023 231005 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    109.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  23.3  24.8  23.8  22.2  24.0  28.9  38.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  71.0  68.0  63.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%