Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152023 231006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    110.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  23.7  21.4  24.2  23.7  27.2  31.3  23.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  36.0  35.0  34.0  30.0  24.0  19.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.6  99.6  97.3  97.3  95.1  92.9  86.5  86.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  11.0  17.0  12.0  56.0  14.0  24.0  24.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.5%       12.7%       15.6%
 25kt / 24h       28.7%       42.7%       35.7%
 30kt / 24h       19.3%       34.5%       26.9%
 35kt / 24h       19.1%       34.5%       26.8%
 40kt / 24h       11.0%       32.3%       21.6%
 45kt / 36h       17.2%       30.3%       23.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.7%        7.4%
 55kt / 48h        7.7%       11.1%        9.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        5.0%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        4.1%        2.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.20

 EP152023 231006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    110.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  23.7  21.4  24.2  23.7  27.2  31.3  23.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  61.0  59.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%