Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152023 231007 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  26.5  25.7  28.3  27.9  24.0  15.6  19.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  31.0  27.0  25.0  19.0  16.0  16.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         97.3  95.1  95.1  95.1  86.5  86.5  82.4  88.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  22.0  55.0  59.0  48.0   9.0   4.0  48.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  58.0  62.0  60.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        2.5%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h        4.9%       10.6%        7.7%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        5.3%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%        5.3%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        5.3%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%        4.6%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        1.9%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        1.6%        1.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 EP152023 231007 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  26.5  25.7  28.3  27.9  24.0  15.6  19.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  58.0  62.0  60.0  56.0  55.0  56.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%