Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152023 231007 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    111.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  28.0  29.3  27.1  25.8  12.9  11.7  27.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  35.0  32.0  29.0  20.0  17.0  20.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.1 100.1 100.1  97.9  91.5  93.6  93.6 100.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  54.0  32.0  53.0  23.0  23.0  46.0  86.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  59.0  58.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.2%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        6.0%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.7%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.4%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        2.4%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        2.7%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        1.7%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%        2.0%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 EP152023 231007 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    111.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  28.0  29.3  27.1  25.8  12.9  11.7  27.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  58.0  59.0  58.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0  -1.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%