Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152023 231007 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    112.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  26.5  24.8  25.2  24.1   9.0  19.0  29.2  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  30.0  24.0  20.0  17.0  17.0  26.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.1 100.1 100.1  93.6  93.6  87.4  97.9 104.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  42.0  65.0  44.0  45.0  69.0  86.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        2.5%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%       11.8%        8.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        5.8%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        5.6%        3.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        5.5%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.4%        6.7%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        3.5%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        1.5%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        5.3%        3.9%        4.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 EP152023 231007 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    112.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  26.5  24.8  25.2  24.1   9.0  19.0  29.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  62.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -4.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%