Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152023 231008 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    112.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  24.1  19.5  17.1   9.0  15.5  38.3  45.8  N  N  N  F  F  F  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  22.0  20.0  19.0  29.0  46.0  46.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         95.1  88.6  88.6  88.6  88.6  99.6 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  21.0  40.0  25.0  68.0  99.0  79.0  30.0  U  U  N  U  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   6.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.2%        4.7%        6.0%
 25kt / 24h       11.2%       21.1%       16.1%
 30kt / 24h        7.6%       13.9%       10.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.9%       13.9%        9.4%
 40kt / 24h        4.1%       13.1%        8.6%
 45kt / 36h       10.1%       20.4%       15.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.2%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h       12.3%       12.7%       12.5%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        6.2%        5.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        4.6%        3.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.82

 EP152023 231008 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    112.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  24.1  19.5  17.1   9.0  15.5  38.3  45.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   6.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%