Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152023 231008 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    112.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  17.9  15.6  11.0  13.4  28.5  44.6  46.7  N  F  F  F  F  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  17.0  17.0  18.0  29.0  38.0  38.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.6  88.6  88.6  82.4  92.9 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  17.0  16.0  37.0  55.0  76.0  25.0 -18.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0 -12.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        4.0%        3.8%
 25kt / 24h        7.8%       19.4%       13.6%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%       13.6%        9.4%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       13.6%        8.4%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%       12.5%        7.4%
 45kt / 36h        8.0%       18.8%       13.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.5%        4.3%
 55kt / 48h        8.4%       10.1%        9.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        3.8%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        2.2%        1.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 EP152023 231008 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    112.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.8  17.9  15.6  11.0  13.4  28.5  44.6  46.7  N  N  U  U  U  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0 -12.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%