Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152023 231009 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    112.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         7.8  11.7  21.1  30.4  41.8  50.5  50.5  50.5 VF  F  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  27.0  33.0  36.0  41.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         93.6  97.9 104.6 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  50.0  51.0  59.0  61.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   3.0   3.0  -8.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  F  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        7.6%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h       13.0%       30.8%       21.9%
 30kt / 24h        6.1%       23.3%       14.7%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%       23.3%       13.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       20.9%       11.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.9%       11.8%        7.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.0%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        3.4%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 EP152023 231009 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    112.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         7.8  11.7  21.1  30.4  41.8  50.5  50.5  50.5 VU  U  N  N VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0   3.0   3.0  -8.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  U  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%