Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152023 231010 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     76.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.3  43.3  45.9  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  38.0  24.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  44.0   0.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0 -13.0  -7.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N VF  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       30.9%       11.4%       21.2%
 25kt / 24h       17.0%       18.7%       17.8%
 30kt / 24h       14.2%       13.4%       13.8%
 35kt / 24h       14.2%       13.4%       13.8%
 40kt / 24h        9.5%       12.2%       10.9%
 45kt / 36h        5.2%        3.8%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 EP152023 231010 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.3  43.3  45.9  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  63.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0 -13.0  -7.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N VU  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%