Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152023 231010 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     82.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.7  45.0  42.6  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  25.0  21.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  11.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -6.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0 VF  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       33.9%        6.7%       20.3%
 25kt / 24h        8.5%        7.3%        7.9%
 30kt / 24h        8.0%        4.2%        6.1%
 35kt / 24h        8.0%        4.2%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        5.7%        3.7%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h       14.6%        2.3%        8.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 EP152023 231010 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.7  45.0  42.6  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0  -6.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0 VU  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.2%       10.1%        5.1%