Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162023 231008 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     99.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  37.0  34.0  35.0  34.1  26.3  26.1  27.7  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  43.0  40.0  39.0  33.0  30.0  23.0  15.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  39.0  98.0  41.0  36.0  36.0  54.0  23.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  77.0  78.0  80.0  76.0  78.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -8.0  -7.0  -3.0   4.0   4.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        8.2%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.7%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        8.6%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        4.0%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%       10.5%        6.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 EP162023 231008 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80     99.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  37.0  34.0  35.0  34.1  26.3  26.1  27.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  77.0  78.0  80.0  76.0  78.0  73.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -5.0  -8.0  -7.0  -3.0   4.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%