Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162023 231008 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    100.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  34.2  33.1  31.5  25.4  19.1  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  40.0  35.0  33.0  30.0  23.0  13.0  13.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  70.0  58.0  34.0  32.0  81.0  62.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  79.0  79.0  77.0  81.0  78.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -7.0  -8.0  -3.0   0.0   6.0   6.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        6.1%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        8.2%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%        5.3%        3.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        3.1%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        4.6%       13.2%        8.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 EP162023 231008 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    100.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  34.2  33.1  31.5  25.4  19.1  24.0  24.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  79.0  79.0  77.0  81.0  78.0  78.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0  -7.0  -8.0  -3.0   0.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%