Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162023 231008 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    100.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  30.6  28.7  26.2  22.2  23.2  33.9  33.9  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  34.0  35.0  36.0  33.0  18.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   108.0  70.0  58.0  49.0  63.0  56.0  41.0  41.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  80.0  77.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0  -1.0   8.0   4.0   4.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.3%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%       17.3%       11.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        6.7%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        6.2%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        6.0%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%       24.4%       13.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        8.7%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h        7.2%       12.6%        9.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        8.3%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%       13.6%        8.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 EP162023 231008 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    100.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.6  30.6  28.7  26.2  22.2  23.2  33.9  33.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  78.0  79.0  78.0  80.0  77.0  77.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0  -1.0   8.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%