Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162023 231008 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    101.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  26.8  25.0  24.2  22.1  29.0  29.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  34.0  34.0  33.0  24.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  29.0  16.0 -11.0  76.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  79.0  79.0  82.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -3.0   3.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.3%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       13.6%        8.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        5.0%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.1%        4.6%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.6%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%       19.7%       11.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.5%        3.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.6%        8.8%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        5.2%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%       11.2%        6.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 EP162023 231008 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    101.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  26.8  25.0  24.2  22.1  29.0  29.0  29.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  80.0  79.0  79.0  82.0  79.0  79.0  79.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -3.0   3.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%