Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162023 231009 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    101.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  21.7  21.5  17.7  23.6  23.6  23.6  23.6  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  34.0  33.0  30.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  48.0  43.0  77.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  78.0  78.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        2.7%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h       10.1%       26.7%       18.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.7%       12.8%        8.8%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%       12.5%        7.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       12.5%        6.8%
 45kt / 36h        7.2%       29.7%       18.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.3%        6.1%
 55kt / 48h        8.6%       15.8%       12.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        9.1%        5.2%
 65kt / 72h        4.0%       18.1%       11.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 EP162023 231009 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    101.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  21.7  21.5  17.7  23.6  23.6  23.6  23.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  79.0  78.0  78.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%