Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162023 231009 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    101.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  20.1  17.4  17.1  28.4  28.4  28.4  28.4  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  33.0  27.0  21.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  23.0  45.0  80.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  78.0  81.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.6%        5.5%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h       16.2%       36.6%       26.4%
 30kt / 24h       10.7%       20.4%       15.5%
 35kt / 24h        6.5%       20.4%       13.4%
 40kt / 24h        6.5%       20.4%       13.4%
 45kt / 36h       13.1%       35.4%       24.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       15.3%        7.7%
 55kt / 48h        9.3%       15.6%       12.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        8.8%        5.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.8%       13.2%        8.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 EP162023 231009 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    101.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.0  20.1  17.4  17.1  28.4  28.4  28.4  28.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  78.0  81.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%