Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162023 231009 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    101.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  13.6  15.2  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  19.0  14.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  65.0  57.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  81.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.6%       21.6%       21.6%
 25kt / 24h       40.6%       62.1%       51.4%
 30kt / 24h       30.8%       51.4%       41.1%
 35kt / 24h       30.8%       51.4%       41.1%
 40kt / 24h       30.8%       51.4%       41.1%
 45kt / 36h       29.7%       56.6%       43.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       36.0%       18.0%
 55kt / 48h       16.8%       32.5%       24.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%       20.4%       11.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%       23.5%       12.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 EP162023 231009 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    101.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  13.6  15.2  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  21.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  78.0  81.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  83.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%