Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162023 231009 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    101.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  22.6  22.6  22.6  22.6  22.6  22.6  22.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.5%       10.2%       11.3%
 25kt / 24h       21.9%       37.8%       29.9%
 30kt / 24h       16.8%       26.0%       21.4%
 35kt / 24h       14.6%       26.0%       20.3%
 40kt / 24h       14.6%       26.0%       20.3%
 45kt / 36h       15.8%       25.7%       20.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.3%        5.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.7%       15.1%       10.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        6.0%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.2%       10.1%        5.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 EP162023 231009 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    101.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  22.6  22.6  22.6  22.6  22.6  22.6  22.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%