Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP162023 231010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    101.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.5%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        2.8%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        3.4%        3.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 EP162023 231010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    101.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  24.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%