Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172023 231017 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.90 107.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 67.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 44.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.3 13.2 14.6 19.1 32.0 30.7 34.0 32.7 F F F N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 22.0 19.0 17.0 24.0 40.0 51.0 34.0 U U U U U N N U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 124.6 F F F F F F F N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 128.0 133.0 135.0 170.0 188.0 148.0 47.0 34.0 F VF VF VF VF VF N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 78.0 77.0 76.0 71.0 61.0 54.0 47.0 F F F F N N U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.0% 8.9% 6.4% 25kt / 24h 42.4% 61.6% 52.0% 30kt / 24h 15.8% 44.3% 30.1% 35kt / 24h 7.5% 44.3% 25.9% 40kt / 24h 5.7% 43.4% 24.6% 45kt / 36h 24.9% 57.8% 41.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 33.5% 16.7% 55kt / 48h 33.3% 37.8% 35.6% 70kt / 48h 15.8% 25.9% 20.9% 65kt / 72h 40.7% 29.9% 35.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.62 EP172023 231017 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.90 107.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.3 13.2 14.6 19.1 32.0 30.7 34.0 32.7 U U U N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 78.0 77.0 76.0 71.0 61.0 54.0 47.0 U U U U N N F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%