Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172023 231018 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    107.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  17.1  22.2  29.4  31.5  32.0  31.0  34.1  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  19.0  20.0  24.0  36.0  48.0  46.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6 114.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   152.0 138.0 199.0 215.0 138.0  99.0  20.0   8.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  61.0  56.0  50.0  46.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.6%       22.9%       21.7%
 25kt / 24h       67.7%       73.5%       70.6%
 30kt / 24h       38.7%       61.3%       50.0%
 35kt / 24h       32.8%       61.3%       47.1%
 40kt / 24h       32.8%       60.6%       46.7%
 45kt / 36h       39.4%       65.1%       52.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       41.6%       20.8%
 55kt / 48h       32.2%       39.0%       35.6%
 70kt / 48h       19.4%       28.3%       23.9%
 65kt / 72h       32.5%       25.1%       28.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 EP172023 231018 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    107.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  17.1  22.2  29.4  31.5  32.0  31.0  34.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  73.0  72.0  61.0  56.0  50.0  46.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%