Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172023 231018 06UTC Storm Located at : 13.90 107.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 90.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 79.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.7 16.5 24.8 29.8 32.4 34.0 35.9 34.2 F F N N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 21.0 24.0 32.0 42.0 51.0 43.0 23.0 U U U U N N N U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 104.6 104.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 141.0 170.0 177.0 144.0 129.0 35.0 -7.0 -8.0 VF VF VF VF F N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 77.0 76.0 70.0 62.0 55.0 52.0 47.0 F F F N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 58.6% 46.7% 52.7% 25kt / 24h 82.7% 85.0% 83.9% 30kt / 24h 63.9% 82.4% 73.2% 35kt / 24h 57.0% 82.4% 69.7% 40kt / 24h 57.0% 80.7% 68.8% 45kt / 36h 53.4% 75.4% 64.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 58.2% 29.1% 55kt / 48h 34.4% 45.4% 39.9% 70kt / 48h 12.9% 30.4% 21.6% 65kt / 72h 13.0% 18.0% 15.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.62 EP172023 231018 06UTC Storm Located at : 13.90 107.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.7 16.5 24.8 29.8 32.4 34.0 35.9 34.2 U N N N N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 77.0 76.0 70.0 62.0 55.0 52.0 47.0 U U U N N F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%