Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172023 231018 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 107.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 96.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 77.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.8 25.4 31.7 31.7 33.6 33.3 38.6 31.5 F N U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 28.0 35.0 42.0 48.0 42.0 26.0 27.0 U U U N N N U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 99.6 99.6 102.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 178.0 160.0 161.0 124.0 37.0 -12.0 35.0 -1.0 VF VF VF F N U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 74.0 68.0 64.0 57.0 52.0 47.0 43.0 F N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 4.0 2.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 54.1% 41.1% 47.6% 25kt / 24h 78.1% 79.5% 78.8% 30kt / 24h 56.4% 76.3% 66.4% 35kt / 24h 50.8% 76.3% 63.5% 40kt / 24h 42.3% 73.7% 58.0% 45kt / 36h 41.5% 59.3% 50.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 37.5% 18.7% 55kt / 48h 18.2% 28.5% 23.4% 70kt / 48h 4.9% 13.2% 9.1% 65kt / 72h 5.1% 8.1% 6.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.60 EP172023 231018 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 107.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.8 25.4 31.7 31.7 33.6 33.3 38.6 31.5 U N N N F F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 74.0 68.0 64.0 57.0 52.0 47.0 43.0 U N N N F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 4.0 2.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%