Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172023 231018 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.30 107.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 97.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 88.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.7 33.4 33.7 35.7 36.6 34.9 40.9 34.5 N U U U U U VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 31.0 40.0 48.0 51.0 44.0 30.0 21.0 32.0 U N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 89.6 92.0 94.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 183.0 157.0 98.0 82.0 0.0 -4.0 17.0 18.0 VF VF F N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 66.0 61.0 59.0 51.0 50.0 43.0 41.0 N N N U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 3.0 3.0 7.0 9.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 65.2% 36.6% 50.9% 25kt / 24h 76.5% 72.4% 74.5% 30kt / 24h 59.0% 69.5% 64.2% 35kt / 24h 56.7% 69.5% 63.1% 40kt / 24h 47.8% 66.4% 57.1% 45kt / 36h 36.8% 38.3% 37.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 18.4% 9.2% 55kt / 48h 8.0% 14.3% 11.1% 70kt / 48h 1.0% 3.9% 2.5% 65kt / 72h 1.6% 2.8% 2.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.56 EP172023 231018 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.30 107.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.7 33.4 33.7 35.7 36.6 34.9 40.9 34.5 N F F F F F VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 66.0 61.0 59.0 51.0 50.0 43.0 41.0 N N N F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 3.0 3.0 7.0 9.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%