Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172023 231019 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 97.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 82.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.8 34.7 35.0 37.4 36.7 37.7 36.6 34.6 U U U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 41.0 51.0 52.0 48.0 35.0 22.0 32.0 31.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 79.6 84.3 85.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 140.0 75.0 58.0 26.0 -13.0 31.0 17.0 -8.0 VF N N U U N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 61.0 58.0 55.0 52.0 49.0 42.0 35.0 N N U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 3.0 7.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 N N N U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 67.1% 28.2% 47.7% 25kt / 24h 62.6% 55.8% 59.2% 30kt / 24h 54.3% 51.6% 52.9% 35kt / 24h 54.3% 51.6% 52.9% 40kt / 24h 38.3% 48.0% 43.1% 45kt / 36h 30.4% 22.9% 26.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 9.5% 4.7% 55kt / 48h 2.1% 5.6% 3.9% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 1.6% 0.9% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 1.3% 0.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.54 EP172023 231019 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.8 34.7 35.0 37.4 36.7 37.7 36.6 34.6 F F F F F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 61.0 58.0 55.0 52.0 49.0 42.0 35.0 N N F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 3.0 7.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 N N N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.5%