Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172023 231019 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.40 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 40.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 94.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.0 39.7 39.0 39.8 37.4 41.5 36.3 42.3 U U U U U VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 48.0 52.0 50.0 44.0 25.0 30.0 32.0 33.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 54.6 59.3 60.0 60.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 67.0 31.0 24.0 0.0 28.0 -12.0 27.0 -26.0 N N U U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 57.0 55.0 52.0 50.0 47.0 42.0 36.0 N U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 7.0 8.0 12.0 10.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 N N U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 41.6% 7.9% 24.7% 25kt / 24h 17.2% 12.4% 14.8% 30kt / 24h 14.4% 7.7% 11.1% 35kt / 24h 14.4% 7.7% 11.1% 40kt / 24h 8.1% 6.7% 7.4% 45kt / 36h 30.3% 5.1% 17.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.54 EP172023 231019 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.40 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 40.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.0 39.7 39.0 39.8 37.4 41.5 36.3 42.3 F F F F F VF F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 57.0 55.0 52.0 50.0 47.0 42.0 36.0 N F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 7.0 8.0 12.0 10.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 N N F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.6% 12.7% 6.6%