Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172023 231019 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     98.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.4  39.7  40.0  40.1  39.2  36.4  36.6  52.7 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  52.0  44.0  36.0  21.0  31.0  33.0  33.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  49.3  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  30.0 -30.0 -10.0  17.0  16.0  23.0   7.0  U  N VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  49.0  46.0  41.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  10.0   9.0   9.0   4.0   0.0   3.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       29.4%        4.3%       16.8%
 25kt / 24h        7.8%        5.0%        6.4%
 30kt / 24h        7.8%        2.7%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        7.8%        2.7%        5.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%        2.3%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 EP172023 231019 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.4  39.7  40.0  40.1  39.2  36.4  36.6  52.7 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  49.0  46.0  41.0  34.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  10.0   9.0   9.0   4.0   0.0   3.0   1.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        4.5%       32.1%       18.3%