Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172023 231019 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 88.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.7 39.7 41.2 36.8 37.9 33.8 39.8 51.7 U U VU U U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 51.0 43.0 34.0 23.0 25.0 30.0 30.0 34.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 50.0 50.0 50.0 44.6 49.3 50.0 50.0 50.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -18.0 -37.0 -6.0 19.0 42.0 40.0 -5.0 2.0 U VU U U N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 51.0 50.0 50.0 47.0 41.0 35.0 32.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 5.0 7.0 5.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.2% 2.1% 6.6% 25kt / 24h 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 30kt / 24h 2.4% 1.2% 1.8% 35kt / 24h 2.4% 1.2% 1.8% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 1.0% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.48 EP172023 231019 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.7 39.7 41.2 36.8 37.9 33.8 39.8 51.7 F F VF F F F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 51.0 50.0 50.0 47.0 41.0 35.0 32.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 5.0 7.0 5.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 3.1% 38.6% 20.9%