Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172023 231020 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.90 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 95.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 83.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.6 38.3 37.1 39.8 33.2 31.2 42.7 50.5 U U U U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 45.0 35.0 24.0 20.0 31.0 32.0 34.0 34.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 60.0 60.0 60.0 54.6 59.3 60.0 60.0 60.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -47.0 -26.0 22.0 0.0 33.0 33.0 4.0 26.0 VU VU U U N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 51.0 51.0 49.0 46.0 41.0 37.0 37.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 6.0 7.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 -1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 1.3% 0.2% 0.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.48 EP172023 231020 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.90 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 39.6 38.3 37.1 39.8 33.2 31.2 42.7 50.5 F F F F F N VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 51.0 51.0 49.0 46.0 41.0 37.0 37.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 6.0 7.0 4.0 0.0 2.0 -1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 1.5% 37.1% 19.3%