Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172023 231020 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 108.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 92.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 81.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.9 39.0 40.4 38.8 31.6 38.6 48.5 60.5 U U U U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 23.0 21.0 28.0 31.0 34.0 34.0 28.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 65.0 65.0 59.6 64.3 64.3 65.0 65.0 65.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -12.0 30.0 18.0 34.0 37.0 -10.0 9.0 -4.0 U N U N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 52.0 49.0 46.0 43.0 39.0 36.0 36.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 10.0 6.0 0.0 -1.0 2.0 -1.0 1.0 N U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.42 EP172023 231020 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 108.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.9 39.0 40.4 38.8 31.6 38.6 48.5 60.5 F F F F N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 52.0 49.0 46.0 43.0 39.0 36.0 36.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 10.0 6.0 0.0 -1.0 2.0 -1.0 1.0 N F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 1.5% 32.0% 16.7%