Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172023 231020 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 108.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 93.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 72.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.6 40.1 37.5 32.4 28.5 38.2 49.5 59.7 U U U U N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 21.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 32.0 34.0 32.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 62.3 64.6 69.3 69.3 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 23.0 48.0 38.0 30.0 47.0 -5.0 34.0 -3.0 U N N N N U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 50.0 47.0 46.0 41.0 38.0 38.0 32.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 7.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.8% 0.6% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.8% 1.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 1.8% 0.5% 1.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.32 EP172023 231020 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 108.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.6 40.1 37.5 32.4 28.5 38.2 49.5 59.7 F F F N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 50.0 47.0 46.0 41.0 38.0 38.0 32.0 F F VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 7.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.3% 17.2% 8.8%