Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172023 231020 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    109.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     81.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.3  36.5  32.7  31.3  37.1  47.1  53.5  55.5  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  26.0  28.0  26.0  29.0  33.0  33.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.6  69.3  69.3  69.3  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  23.0  20.0  30.0  -4.0  13.0  54.0  25.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  47.0  45.0  44.0  40.0  39.0  34.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        0.9%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        2.9%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        1.5%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        1.5%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%        0.8%        1.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.30

 EP172023 231020 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    109.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.3  36.5  32.7  31.3  37.1  47.1  53.5  55.5  F  F  F  N  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  47.0  45.0  44.0  40.0  39.0  34.0  F  F VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.2%       12.7%        6.4%