Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172023 231021 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 109.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 86.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 75.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.1 32.0 31.3 28.7 47.4 49.6 54.6 58.9 U U U N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 25.0 23.0 24.0 31.0 33.0 32.0 16.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 57.0 43.6 43.6 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 11.0 34.0 39.0 -14.0 14.0 -19.0 21.0 U U N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 47.0 45.0 43.0 43.0 40.0 40.0 38.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -6.0 1.0 N N N N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.7% 2.4% 7.1% 25kt / 24h 3.8% 4.4% 4.1% 30kt / 24h 3.8% 2.4% 3.1% 35kt / 24h 3.8% 2.4% 3.1% 40kt / 24h 1.2% 2.2% 1.7% 45kt / 36h 11.4% 1.6% 6.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.10 EP172023 231021 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 109.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 112.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.1 32.0 31.3 28.7 47.4 49.6 54.6 58.9 F N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 47.0 45.0 43.0 43.0 40.0 40.0 38.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -6.0 1.0 N N N N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 12.7% 6.4%