Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172023 231021 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.40 110.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 88.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 55.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.1 32.7 29.9 39.3 49.2 52.2 59.3 71.5 U U N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 23.0 25.0 28.0 32.0 34.0 21.0 16.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 48.6 48.6 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 26.0 40.0 10.0 -9.0 -6.0 12.0 17.0 44.0 U N U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 45.0 44.0 40.0 39.0 37.0 35.0 34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 1.0 11.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 0.6% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.4% 1.0% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.06 EP172023 231021 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.40 110.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 100. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 100.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.1 32.7 29.9 39.3 49.2 52.2 59.3 71.5 F F N F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 45.0 44.0 40.0 39.0 37.0 35.0 34.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 1.0 11.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 17.8% 8.9%