Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172023 231021 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.30 110.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 52.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 38.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.9 28.5 37.6 44.5 48.8 55.4 64.8 64.8 U N U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 21.0 26.0 29.0 32.0 27.0 8.0 8.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 58.6 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 49.0 8.0 -6.0 -28.0 19.0 12.0 39.0 39.0 N U U VU U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 42.0 41.0 40.0 39.0 38.0 34.0 34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.24 EP172023 231021 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.30 110.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.9 28.5 37.6 44.5 48.8 55.4 64.8 64.8 F N F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 42.0 41.0 40.0 39.0 38.0 34.0 34.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.2% 14.9% 7.6%